摩根大通资管CEO：虎年市场 八面来风
摩根资产与财富管理公司CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes女士近日出席全球财富管理论坛上海苏河湾峰会时，就全球投资组合及资本市场增长趋势发表了演讲。
作为全球最大且历史悠久的跨国金融集团之一，摩根大通早在一个世纪前就与中国结缘。适逢壬寅虎年新春，Erdoes女士对2022年的社会、经济及金融政策趋势做了八点总结，在理性面对客观变化的同时，她鼓舞市场参与者如“虎”般充满生机和活力。具体而言，这八个方面主要涉及了对疫情的大方向判断、流动性释放特征、通胀压力、ESG及能源转型、另类投资标的配置、YUC风险及相关指数泡沫预警、投资组合跨境流动，以及黑天鹅事件的不可预测。虽然篇幅简短，但句句凝练，基于Erdoes女士长达二十五年的财富管理经验，投资者可以通过她的八点深度思考，对2022年及今后的市场表现见微知著。
以下为演讲全文。
在2022年全球财富管理论坛
上海苏河湾峰会上的演讲
随着2021年进入尾声，摩根大通在中国开展业务已超过百年，我们为此感到自豪。我们在过去的一个世纪里深耕中国业务，也非常期待下一个百年的到来。1921年，我们在中国展开业务，当时摩根大通的前身Equitable Eastern Banking Corporation在上海设立了第一家分行，为本地和外国机构客户提供金融服务。
一个世纪以来，从大卫•洛克菲勒多次造访，到今天杰米•戴蒙在这里的数次投资，设立合资企业，我们对能一直帮助世界各地的客户投资中国感到十分自豪，并非常感谢许多委托我们拓展海外市场的中国客户。感谢所有的业务合作伙伴，我们期待在未来的日子里能继续帮助中国境内外的客户管理宝贵资产并实现长期的资产增值。
在虎年到来之际，我们希望这一年如“虎”般充满生机和活力，同时也给金融业注入生命力。
“八”这个数字象征吉祥，因此，我打算对2022年的市场作出八点总结，供所有投资者参考：
一、疫情。如果以纽约的现状为例，新冠病毒有望会像当年的“非典”一样很快消失。我们经历确诊人数的激增，望不到头的核酸检测队伍，空空如也的药房货架。但目前情况已有所好转，对于已经接种疫苗的人而言，症状大多较轻。因此，如果伦敦和纽约继续这种向好的趋势，短期内全球疫情都有望将会好转。
二、流动性。为应对这场全球疫情以及帮助市场，全球各主要央行向市场注入了大量流动性。此前的全球金融危机为我们留下的经验表明，世界需要大量且快速的流动性来帮助修复金融市场的创伤。所以，这次当世界陷入封锁状态时，各国央行采用了同样的策略。每个交易日提供260亿美元的流动性，换言之，每个交易日的流动性是2008年应对金融危机时的两倍，且时间缩短了一半。这也使得央行资产负债表翻了四倍，而大量的流动性使得物价飞涨。此外，2021的并购总额也有史以来首次超过了6.5万亿美元，投资者将更多的资金投入到股票市场，超过了过去二十年的累计总额。如今，美国消费者有2万亿美元的超额储蓄闲置，等待消费或投资。考虑到这一点，美国标普500指数市盈率为21倍，远高于17倍的历史平均水平也就不足为奇了。
三、通货膨胀。通货膨胀状况也并不乐观。更高的利率意味着以现在的价格计算的未来收益不如以往。供应链问题也尚未解决。截至2021年12月16日，共有94艘集装箱船积压在洛杉矶和长滩的港口。美国卡车司机去年在排队等待上浪费的时间累计长达50年。此外，市场认为通货膨胀不再只是“暂时性的”。2021年12月，超过150万名工人因病缺岗，250万人因未接种疫苗而缺岗（占全部成年人口的1%），500万人因需照顾未上学或没有日托的儿童缺岗。归根结底，财务预期需要重新调整。
四、ESG。现在的投资者用环境(E)、社会(S)和治理(G)这三个字母来表达在投资的同时造福社会的愿景。但对于ESG，是仁者见仁，智者见智，因为世界上每个人对造福社会的看法都不尽相同，没有一个放之四海皆准的原则。比如有些人可能想改变化石燃料行业。我们需要认识到，目前社会运作方式下，还没有可行的替代品来快速推行去化石燃料。能源结构快速变革会带来短期压力，例如当前欧洲天然气价格比一年前要高出四倍。当前用于改善能源结构的投资支出（即资本支出）比峰值下降了75%，因此，我们需要以一种更明智的方式推动能源结构变革。
五、另类投资。如果非必须，就不要为所有资产都支付流动性溢价。对于不需要流动性的投资者，另类投资具有巨大的价值，更直观来说，基础设施ETF的收益率约为2.5%，而非流动性ETF的收益率为10%。基础设施非常重要。目前美国没有任何港口排进世界前50名，因此这方面存在较多投资机会。
六、YUC（年轻的尚未盈利公司）。需要小心这类标的。我们用CRSP美国总市场指数代表美国可投资股票池总量，而YUC目前在该指数中约占3.5%。这是自本世纪初以来的最高比例。尽管从1980年至2019年期间，平均3年期买入并持有不盈利公司的首次公开发行股票的回报率是-17%。另一个令人震惊的数据是，创新类ETF将80%的投资组合配置在此类未盈利公司，其投资回报比去年峰值时下降了近50%，虽然自2020年1月以来，这些ETF的表现仍比标普500指数高出20%以上。在经历了30年的牛市之后，远期利润越来越容易受到更高贴现率的影响，在市场重新估值时，这将给投资者带来负面冲击。
七、带有偏向性的投资组合。投资偏向本土标的这一情况从未如此盛行。例如，美国股市占全球股市的一半以上，但整个美国股市近四分之三为美国人持有。此外，日本股市的77%由日本投资者持有，尽管日本市场仅占全球基准的6%。尤其是在当前全球化受到压力的情况下，我们更应尝试消除投资组合中的偏向，并确保投资于世界各地的各个增长领域，而不仅仅是那些每天都能“看见”的熟悉领域。
八、黑天鹅事件。基于二十五年的财富管理经验，我唯一能确定的是，未来“黑天鹅”事件不太可能是当下我们正热议的那些话题，而更可能是从某些意外情况衍生而来。所以请谨记，唯一“聪明”的做法是对我们的投资组合进行压力测试，应对“已知的未知风险”以及“未知的未知风险”。
这些就是我的“吉祥八谈”，希望通过这八个想法，帮我们做好投资组合方面的准备，以迎接前路的坎坷，同时抓住未来的增长机会。
Speech at GAMF 2022 Shanghai Summit
As we close the year of 2021, we are proud to have crossed over the 100 year mark for JPMC's presence in China. Our firm has proudly done business in China for the past century and we look forward to many more centuries to come. We are proud to have established our business in China in 1921, when the predecessor firm of J. P. Morgan, Equitable Eastern Banking Corporation, established its first branch in Shanghai, providing financial services to local and foreign institutional clients.
And for these last 100 years, from the many visits of David Rockefeller to today's countless investments and Joint Ventures in the region by Jamie Dimon, we are proud to continue to help our clients from around the world invest into China and tremendously grateful for the many Chinese clients who entrust us to help them access other parts of the world. We thank you all for this business partnership and we look forward to continuing to help clients inside and outside of China to help manage their hard earned assets for long term income and prosperity, for many years to come.
As we welcome the year of the Tiger, we hope for a year of vigor and vitality, something the tiger symbolizes. And we hope that translates to financial vigor and vitality as well.
In the spirit of the lucky number 8, I have eight points for the year of 2022 in the markets that I think all investors should keep at the forefront of their minds:
1. THE PANDEMIC. If New York City is any sign, COVID is likely to go the way of SARs, hopefully soon. We've had a surge, with endlessly long testing lines and empty pharmacy shelves. But this week already feels better and for the vaccinated it has been mostly mild. So If the trends in London and New York City continue, we will be on a better trend, globally, in a short period of time. Let's all hope that is case!
2. LIQUIDITY. In response to the global pandemic, major Central Banks around the world have flooded the markets with liquidity to help support those markets. Having a playbook from The Global Financial Crisis, the world required a lot of liquidity and quickly, to help cure the wounds of the damage from financial markets, and it worked. So when the world went into lockdown, the central banks used that playbook. They provided $26 billion of liquidity every trading day, in other words, that is twice as much liquidity and in half the amount of time as the 2008 crisis. As such, central banks' balance sheets have grown 4x, and that liquidity makes all sorts of things increase in price. Adding to that, 2021 also had over $6.5 trillion in M&A value (the most ever) and investors put more money into the equity markets than the last 20 years, cumulatively. Today US Consumers have $2 trillion in excess savings waiting on the sidelines ready to be spent or invested. With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that the S&P 500 forward P/E is at 21x when the historical average has been less than 17x.
3. INFLATION. Inflation doesn't make everything look good. Higher interest rates mean future earnings in today's terms don't look as good as they did moments before. Supply chain issues are not unclogged yet. As of December 16th, there were 94 containerships loitering in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. U.S. truckers collectively wasted what amounted to FIFTY years waiting in lines last year. Additionally, "transitory" is a word that is fading from fame. In December, over 1.5 million workers were not at work due to illness, 2.5 million due to vaccine requirements (that is 1% of all adults) and 5 million people because they were caring for children not in school or daycare. Ultimately, financial expectations need to be readjusted.
4. ESG. Today's investors use the letters E-S-G to express the desire to do good while investing. But ESG is personal because everyone's version of doing good in the world can be different. No one size fits all. Some may want to change the fossil fuel industry. We just have to realize that the world may not be ready for the speed of that withdrawal as there are not viable replacements for the way we work today. A quick retreat from today's energy sources is leading to short term pressure, Europe, as an example, is experiencing natural gas prices running 4x higher than where they were just a year ago. And the investments to change (i.e. Capex) is down 75% from peak. So, we need to get to a better place but in a smart way.
5. ALTERNATIVES. Don't pay a liquidity premium for 100% of your assets if you don't need to. Alternatives have tremendous value if you don't need liquidity, to bring this to life for you, the yield on the infrastructure ETF is approximately 2.5% versus 10% for the illiquid version. I mention infrastructure because, even though it appears very boring, it is very important. Not one U.S. port ranks in the top 50 globally, demonstrating room for improvement and investment.
6. YUCs (Young Unprofitable Companies). Be careful. YUCs currently make up about 3.5% of the CRSP US Total market index, which we use as a proxy for the total US investable universe. This is the highest percentage since the early 2000s, despite the fact that between 1980 and 2019, the average 3-year buy and hold return for unprofitable IPO companies is -17.0%. Another startling stat is that Innovation ETFs have 80% of their portfolios allocated to unprofitable companies. Performance is down almost 50% from last year's peak, nevertheless, these ETFs have still outperformed the S&P 500 by over 20% since January 2020. After a 30-year bull market, distant profits are increasingly more susceptible to higher discount rates and it can hurt when revalued.
7. BIASED PORTFOLIOS. Home country bias has never been more prevalent. For example, the U.S. equity market is more than half of the global stock market, yet nearly three-fourths of the entire U.S. equity market is owned by Americans. In addition, 77% of the Japanese equity market is owned by Japanese investors, even though the market is only 6% of a global benchmark. Try to fight against that bias in your portfolio. Be sure you are investing on all the areas of growth around the world, not just the ones you can "see" every day, especially since "exploring the world" has been muted.
8. BLACK SWAN. After 25 years of managing money, the only thing I can assure you is that tomorrow's "black swan" event is unlikely to be anything the world is talking about, and more likely to be a derivative of something we haven't expected. So just remember the only "SMART" thing to do is to stress test your portfolio for the "known unknowns" but also the "Unknown unknowns."
These are my "LUCKY 8", eight thoughts for the portfolios to be ready for bumps in the road but also many growth opportunities to come in the future.
全球财富管理论坛
全球财富管理论坛是在金融开放背景下，为顺应全球资产管理行业发展与中国资产管理行业转型需求，由清华大学经济管理学院、孙冶方经济科学基金会、中国财富管理50人论坛联合发起成立的一个国际性交流平台组织，论坛旨在构建一个汇聚全球资产拥有者和管理者、监管部门和市场代表的长期对话沟通平台，为国内外资产管理机构搭建交流与合作的桥梁。
